Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS65 KPUB 250541
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1141 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong/severe thunderstorms potentially rolling southeast from the
  Palmer Divide onto the plains this evening.

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms linger through the evening and
  overnight across the plains, then cooler Friday with showers
  and isolated thunderstorms persisting.

- High Fire Danger over the San Luis Valley Friday and Saturday.

- Ongoing showers and storms across the southeast Plains Friday
  night and Saturday with potential for strong to severe storms.

- Critical fire weather expand across much of south central and
  southeast Colorado Sunday into Monday.

- Unsettled weather continues into the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Update to extend the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Kiowa,
Crowley, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties until Midnight MDT due
to ongoing convection in a favorable environment for possible
severe development. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was expired as
scheduled for El Paso, Pueblo, Las Animas, and Otero counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Early morning cloudiness has slowed onset of convection somewhat
this afternoon, though as of 2 pm, CAPE has recovered into 1000-2000
J/KG range over much of the plains. A few cells have already
percolated over the mountains/near the Raton Mesa and north of the
Palmer Divide, where clouds were quicker to clear this morning.
Overall, still expect convection to fire along the Palmer 4-6 pm,
then move/develop south and southeast this evening. CAMS a little
scattered on where the strongest storms will be, a few models have
strong storms as far south as the Pueblo area, though rough
consensus seems to point to ern El Paso/ern Pueblo/Crowley Counties
having the greatest risk of a strong storm. Shear (0-6km 30-40 kts,
mainly east of I-25)/instability (CAPE 1-2k J/KG) continue to
suggest supercell storms with large hail (1-2 inches) and strong
winds (g60-70 mph) are possible, especially as we get deeper into
the evening and low level easterly winds increase. After sunset,
cold front pushes south, which will likely keep the threat of storms
going well into the night, then atmosphere slowly stabilizes toward
Friday morning, with precip turning toward patchy drizzle/light rain
along and east of the mountains.

On Friday, cool/relatively stable air mass in place over the plains,
with a few showers possible, especially near eastern mountain slopes
where weak upslope will generate some modest upward motion.
Atmosphere destabilizes enough to introduce thunder into the
forecast for Friday afternoon, especially over the mountains where
some breaks of sun will be possible. A few CAMS, including the HRRR,
suggest strong convection develops on the plains south of the
Arkansas River, as very strong shear (0-6km 50-60 kts) overcomes
rather meager instability (CAPE less than 1000 J/KG). Current SWODY2
has severe threat south of Colorado, thinking not enough instability
this far north to generate severe convection. Will have to watch for
cold front potentially lifting northward late in the day, which
could aid in convective development. Overall, ongoing forecast for
Friday looks good, did only some minor adjustments to pops, and
expanded mention of t-storms onto the plains to at least acknowledge
some of the mesoscale model forecasts. For the San Luis Valley,
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a warning, as dry air remains in
place, and winds increase in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Friday night-Saturday night...Models continue to indicate increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region through the day Saturday, with
short wave energy rounding the base of an upper low translating across
the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin by Saturday night. Said
waa across the region, with low level moisture in place across the
southeast Plains within developing south to southeast flow low level
flow will keep good chances (40-60 percent) of showers and embedded
thunderstorms across southeast Colorado Friday night and Saturday,
with the potential for stronger storms, especially through the
afternoon along a developing dryline across the plains. Further west,
good mixing will lead to critical fire weather conditions across
the San Luis Valley on Saturday, with a Fire Weather Watch being
issued Saturday afternoon and evening. Clouds and waa keep overnight
lows mild in the 40s across the Plains and in the 20s and 30s across
the higher terrain, with snow levels likely remaining aob 10K feet.

Sunday-Monday...Strong southwest flow remains progged across the
Rockies on Sunday, as Great Basin upper low weakens as it lifts
across the region through the day Monday. Strong winds with very
dry air progged across the region will lead widespread critical fire
weather conditions developing across most of south central and
southeast Colorado on Sunday, with the potential for conditions
linger on Monday across the southeast Plains. Fire weather highlights
will likely be needed across the region, depending on fuel status.
Well above seasonal temperatures across the region on Sunday, cool
slightly from west to east on Monday, as the passing system translates
across the Rockies, bringing chances of showers to mainly the higher
terrain Sunday night and Monday.

Tuesday Onwards...Latest model data supports unsettled weather with
at to slightly below seasonal temperatures across the region into
the middle of next week, as a broad upper trough develops across
the Northern Tier and Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

KCOS and KPUB..IFR conditions in low clouds, mist, and rain are
expected through the majority of the TAF period. Showers and weak
thunderstorms will be possible at both stations generally after 18Z
on Friday. LIFR conditions will become more likely after 00Z Friday
evening, as winds remain upslope and easterly at KPUB and
southeasterly at KCOS. Chances for light rain and drizzle will
increase through Friday evening as well.

KALS..Winds will be mainly variable through the overnight hours,
becoming south-southwesterly by tomorrow morning. Southwesterly
gusts to 30kt are likely (80% chance) for tomorrow afternoon.
Scattered to broken mid and upper-level cloud cover is expected.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR