Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

956
FXUS65 KPUB 041148
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
548 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation expected to develop throughout the
  day today, and persist overnight through Saturday morning.

- Higher impact snow is expected along southern portions of the
  region given heavy and wet snow.

- Warmer and drier conditions beginning Sunday, with increasing
  fire danger beginning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Today: The end of the weekend brings messy and active weather to
south central and southeastern Colorado. A broad trough will be in
place over the area, with an embedded compact wave sitting just to
the southwest of the region. While the core of the wave will remain
south of the area, surface to low level winds will take on a
northeasterly component as the wave starts to slowly push eastward,
allowing for orographic forcing to increase throughout the day. One
area of greater forcing is expected along the eastern mountains,
southern I-25 corridor, and Raton Mesa, where a cold front sagged
across the plains will start to drop southward as the wave treks
east, deepening the upslope into these localized areas. With that
all said, this forcing, coupled with an uptick in moisture being
pulled into the broader system, will allow for showers to blossom
across much of the region, initially along the mountains in the
morning, and expanding across the valleys and plains during the day.
Precipitation type will be a bit messy though, with all snow
anticipated for the mountains and valleys, though a rain/snow will
be possible for the San Luis Valley during the afternoon as
temperatures warm. As for the plains, snow levels will quickly rise
during the day to around 6,000-6,200 ft, with slushy and wet snow
then expected above this level, a rain/snow mix around this level,
and rain below this level. With that all said, the area of greatest
shower coverage and intensity will be where forcing is deepest and
strongest, which will be the eastern mountains, southern I-25
corridor, and Raton Mesa area, and particularly later in the day as
the front begins its surge southward. Beyond all of that, widespread
cloud cover is anticipated during the day, with winds steadily
increasing as the front starts its push south. Looking at
temperatures, a cool early April day is in store. With the front
draped across the area, and the unsettled pattern overheard,
temperatures will remain well below seasonal values, with the plains
and valleys only warming into the upper 30s to upper 40s, and the
mountains reaching into the 20s to mid 30s.

Tonight: The messy and active weather continues into Friday night
for south central and southeastern Colorado. The broader trough will
start to push eastward and now quickly pull along the compact wave
with it. Like Friday though, the main portion of the wave will
remain further south, though surface to low level winds will
maintain their northeasterly component, allowing for orographic
forcing to persist. Along with that, the cold front across the
plains will now be surging southward, allowing for stronger surface
upsloping into the eastern mountains, southern I-25 corridor, and
Raton Mesa area. This forcing, combined with the elevated moisture
still in place, will allow for widespread showers to continue
overnight, with the heaviest remaining along the eastern mountains,
southern I-25 corridor, and Raton Mesa. While precipitation type
will be messy to start the evening, as temperatures quickly drop,
snow is expected to become the dominant precipitation type if it
wasn`t already. With that all said, impacts are expected to be
greatest along the localized areas of the eastern mountains,
southern I-25 corridor, and Raton Mesa, with roads becoming covered
in slushy and wet snow, and strain possible on some infrastructure
and trees given the heavy and wet nature of the snow. Outside of all
of that, cloudy conditions will persist with the unsettled pattern,
and winds will remain breezy in response to the surging cold front.
As for temperatures, a cold night is anticipated. Despite the thick
cloud cover in place, much of the region will drop to well below
seasonal temperatures thanks to colder air filling in behind the
front, with the plains dropping into the 20s, the valleys falling
into the upper 10s to 20s, and the mountains sinking into the single
digits to mid 10s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Saturday...The longwave upper trough will stretch from the Great
Lakes region south-southwest down across CO and NM, with the low
center over the southern NM border Sat morning. Models indicate that
the low will weaken slightly and shift into western TX through the
day, then continue to weaken and slide across OK Sat evening. This
more southerly track will keep the focus of potential snowfall
across the southern portions of the forecast area through the day,
with rapidly diminishing activity from north to south during the
evening. Only a few lingering showers over the southern mts are
expected then by midnight. 1 to 3 inches of additional snow is
forecast for the peaks of the eastern mts and Raton Pass through the
day Sat before activity dies off, while the southwest mts may fair
slightly better with a potential 5 or 6 inches of new snow for the
peaks of the eastern San Juans through Sat evening. Highlights are
scheduled to expire for the eastern areas by mid-afternoon, then
across the eastern San Juans by 6 PM.

It is expected to be a cold and cloudy day for at least the first
half of the day, with high temps in the 30s and 40s for much of the
area. Northerly winds at 10 to 20 mph through the day will make it
feel like it is about 10 degrees cooler.

Sunday and Monday...As the upper trough exits to the east early
Sunday morning, an amplified upper ridge of high pressure develops
over the western US for the remainder of Sunday and through Monday.
There is a hint of some isolated showers over the southwest mts
Sunday afternoon, but otherwise plan on mainly dry conditions and
gradually warming temps into the beginning of the next work week.
For Sunday expect 50s for the high valleys and 50s to around 60F for
the plains. On Monday, highs will climb into the 50s to near 60F for
the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains.

Tuesday through Thursday...Systems passing by well to the north will
help to flatten the upper ridge, producing brisk westerly flow
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions through midweek. As
temps climb to above seasonal normals, combined with continued dry
conditions, increased fire danger will once again become a concern.
Plan on highs in the 60s for the high valleys both Tue and Wed, then
around 70F for Thu. Across the plains, afternoon high temps will
warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s each day. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions early in this TAF period will
drop to MVFR to IFR conditions as clouds quickly drop during the
day, and as rain and snow showers develop during the afternoon, and
become more widespread tonight. Winds will increase during the day
and remain relatively gusty heading into Saturday morning,
especially for KPUB and KCOS as a front starts to push southward
early in the day. While more persistent snow is expected for
KALS, confidence is less for KCOS and KPUB given the effects of
strong downsloping winds. These two TAF sites will may
frequently fluctuate between being impacted by showers and
having dry conditions over the terminal site during most of this
TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Saturday for COZ068.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM MDT
Saturday for COZ074-075-079-080.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT
Saturday for COZ087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT
Saturday for COZ094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SIMCOE